Germany’s foreign intelligence service (BND) assessed in 2020 that there was an 80-90% probability coronavirus accidentally leaked from a Chinese laboratory, according to German media reports.
Two German newspapers uncovered details of a previously unpublished BND assessment. The intelligence agency reportedly had indications that the Wuhan Institute of Virology had conducted experiments modifying viruses to increase transmissibility to humans for research purposes.
China has maintained its denial, stating the cause “should be determined by scientists” and referencing a World Health Organization investigation that concluded the lab-leak theory was “extremely unlikely.”
No scientific consensus exists regarding the pandemic’s origin.
While many scientists contest the lab leak hypothesis citing insufficient evidence, the theory has gained traction among intelligence agencies. In January, the US CIA assessed coronavirus “more likely” leaked from a lab than emerged from animals.
According to Die Zeit and Sueddeutscher Zeitung, the BND conducted an investigation called Project Saaremaa in Berlin in 2020, determining the lab theory was “likely” despite lacking conclusive proof. The agency also found indications of safety regulation violations at the facility.
This assessment, commissioned by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel’s office, remained unknown to the public until now. The findings were reportedly shared with the CIA last autumn.
The CIA stated in January that a “research-related origin” was more probable than natural origin based on available information, though with “low confidence” in this conclusion.
Both the BND and outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz declined comment.
China’s foreign ministry spokesperson responded: “The conclusion that a laboratory leak is extremely unlikely was reached by the China-WHO joint expert team after on-site visits to relevant labs in Wuhan and in-depth discussions with researchers. This authoritative scientific conclusion has been widely recognised.”
The WHO’s 2021 investigation involved scientists visiting Wuhan for 12 days, including the laboratory, before concluding the lab-leak theory was “extremely unlikely.” However, some scientists have criticized the WHO report for inadequately examining the lab-leak theory, which was dismissed in just a few pages.
Proponents of natural origin suggest COVID-19 emerged in bats before jumping to humans through an intermediate animal host. While initially widely accepted, scientists have not discovered a virus in bats or other animals matching COVID-19’s genetic makeup, causing some to question this theory.
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